Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has emerged as a key driver of Nigeria’s improving economic outlook, following the recent sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P Global Ratings.
In its latest assessment, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “B” from “B-”, citing stronger economic growth, improved external balances, rising crude oil production, and expanded domestic refining capacity as critical factors underpinning the country’s economic recovery.
The ratings agency highlighted the operational ramp-up of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery as a major contributor to Nigeria’s strengthening balance of payments position and growing economic resilience.
According to S&P, Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to increase from 4.8 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 to 5.8 per cent in 2026, driven partly by increased domestic refining activities and rising hydrocarbon exports.
The agency noted that the refinery is helping to strengthen the country’s external position by reducing dependence on imported petroleum products and improving foreign exchange liquidity.
“Significant refining capacity is now also online; Dangote Industries Ltd.’s large-scale refinery and petrochemical complex has ramped up to near its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day,” S&P stated in its report.
The agency further projected that the refinery would continue to support Nigeria’s current account surplus while ensuring the availability of refined fuel, gas, and fertiliser for the domestic market. It also noted that the facility is providing a strategic buffer against global supply disruptions arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
S&P added that Nigeria’s improving external position has also been bolstered by reduced fuel import dependence, the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate liberalisation, and higher oil production levels.
Foreign exchange reserves, according to the report, have increased significantly from approximately $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion by early 2026, supported in part by lower import demand for refined petroleum products following the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery.
