As Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, prepares to start fuel production at his much-anticipated refinery, many Nigerians are hopeful that this project will bring an end to the country’s perennial fuel shortages and high prices. However, not everyone shares this optimism. Nigerian activist and lawyer, Deji Adeyanju, has voiced strong opinions about the refinery and its potential impact on the Nigerian economy. In an interview, he questioned whether Dangote’s refinery would truly help Nigerians or just make fuel even more expensive while benefiting only a few elites.

The Dangote Refinery, located in Lagos, is one of the largest industrial projects in Africa. It is expected to produce 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making Nigeria more self-sufficient in fuel production. Given Nigeria’s long-standing issues with importing fuel and reliance on foreign refineries, many see Dangote’s project as a game-changer. With the refinery coming online, there is hope that the country’s chronic fuel scarcity and the volatile fuel prices will stabilize.

However, Adeyanju offers a different narrative. He believes that the refinery might not deliver the expected relief to Nigerian consumers and could instead drive fuel prices even higher.

One of Adeyanju’s key points is that Dangote’s refinery, rather than reducing fuel prices, could lead to price hikes. He claims that Dangote, being a businessman, is focused on maximizing profits. According to him, the businessman is likely to sell fuel at a much higher price—up to N1300 per liter—despite buying crude oil domestically. This projection is concerning, especially when the current pump price is around N600 per liter.

Adeyanju explains that since Dangote will be purchasing crude oil in naira (rather than in dollars, which is the standard practice), the price should be lower. However, instead of passing on this cost advantage to Nigerians, he fears that Dangote will use the opportunity to sell fuel at a premium price, further increasing the cost of living.

Another major issue raised by Adeyanju is the special treatment Dangote is receiving from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). He argues that it does not make sense for the NNPC to sell crude oil to Dangote in naira when the international market trades crude oil in dollars. This arrangement, according to Adeyanju, gives Dangote an unfair advantage over other fuel importers.

Adeyanju questions why the government is allowing this preferential treatment, while other refineries are neglected. He suggests that the government should sell its other refineries to private companies, fostering healthy competition in the market. With more players involved, Nigeria could benefit from better pricing and increased fuel availability.

He further argues that allowing Dangote to be the sole producer of fuel in Nigeria creates a monopolistic environment where prices are not determined by market forces but by one individual. This, he believes, is harmful to the Nigerian economy and consumers, as there will be no competition to drive prices down.

While many expect Dangote’s refinery to solve Nigeria’s fuel scarcity problems, Adeyanju believes the issue will persist. He explains that there is no mechanism in place to ensure that Dangote will prioritize the Nigerian market. As a businessman, Dangote could choose to sell a significant portion of his fuel to neighboring countries like Niger and Togo, where he could fetch higher prices.

Without proper regulations and checks, Adeyanju warns that Dangote might undersupply the Nigerian market, leading to continued fuel shortages. He emphasizes the need for a solid Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or regulations that would ensure Dangote’s refinery prioritizes domestic supply before exporting fuel to other countries.

Adeyanju also questions the broader economic impact of Dangote’s refinery. While the project has been hailed as a potential solution to Nigeria’s fuel and economic woes, he argues that the refinery will likely increase inflation rather than reduce it. If fuel prices rise to N1300 per liter as predicted, the cost of goods and services will also increase, leading to even higher inflation.

Nigeria is already grappling with high inflation rates, currently estimated at around 42%. Adeyanju warns that the impact of higher fuel prices could push inflation beyond 50%, worsening the economic situation for most Nigerians.

Additionally, he highlights that the government’s continued payment of fuel subsidies further complicates the matter. Even with Dangote’s refinery in operation, Adeyanju questions whether the government will continue to subsidize fuel, and if so, who will benefit from these subsidies.

Adeyanju’s criticisms extend beyond Dangote’s refinery to the broader economic policies of President Bola Tinubu’s administration. He argues that Tinubu’s government is more focused on benefiting a small group of elites rather than improving the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

According to Adeyanju, the administration’s reliance on propaganda to mask the country’s economic challenges will not lead to meaningful progress. He predicts that Nigerians will face more hardship under Tinubu’s government, with higher unemployment, rising inflation, and increased poverty.

Adeyanju also criticized Tinubu’s foreign engagements, calling them ineffective. He described recent attempts to secure international loans, such as the president’s visit to China with a large delegation, as poorly managed and unproductive. He suggests that instead of relying on external loans and support, the government should focus on improving the country’s internal economic policies and governance.

While Dangote’s refinery holds promise for increasing Nigeria’s fuel production, Adeyanju believes that without fair competition and proper regulation, the project will not benefit ordinary Nigerians. Instead, it could lead to higher fuel prices, increased inflation, and continued economic hardship.

Adeyanju urges the government to reconsider its support for Dangote and focus on creating a more competitive fuel market. By privatizing other refineries and ensuring that market forces, rather than monopolistic control, dictate prices, Nigeria can build a more stable and prosperous economy.

In the end, Adeyanju warns that expecting Dangote’s refinery to be the magic solution to Nigeria’s fuel problems may be misguided. Without the right policies in place, the country could face more challenges, not fewer, in the years to come.