Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, extending the country’s disinflation trend to four consecutive months, according to figures attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest rate represents a decline of 6.35 percentage points from the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.

Month-on-month headline inflation also slowed significantly to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August, indicating a slower pace of increase in average consumer prices.

However, the moderation in headline inflation was accompanied by mixed price movements across different sectors, as food inflation declined while core and urban inflation accelerated on a month-on-month basis.

Food Inflation Declines

Food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, down from 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation dropped to -1.55 per cent in September from 1.02 per cent in August, reflecting a decline in the prices of several food items.

The items contributing to the reported movement included grains, rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, vegetables, potatoes, plantain and tomatoes.

The 12-month average food inflation rate also declined to 15.72 per cent, compared with 28.37 per cent recorded in September 2025.

The decline in food prices could provide some relief to households facing elevated living costs, although the impact on consumers will depend on actual market prices and the cost of essential goods across different locations.

Core Inflation Rises Despite Overall Decline

While headline and food inflation moderated, core inflation, which excludes certain volatile items, recorded an increase on a month-on-month basis.

The year-on-year core inflation rate stood at 12.95 per cent in September, compared with 22.11 per cent in September 2025.

However, month-on-month core inflation rose to 1.11 per cent from -0.06 per cent in August, indicating renewed price pressures across items covered by the measure.

The 12-month average core inflation rate stood at 16.54 per cent, down from 25.68 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The figures highlight the uneven nature of Nigeria’s disinflation process, as declining food prices continue to moderate the overall inflation rate while other components of the consumer basket experience renewed increases.

Urban And Rural Inflation Record Mixed Movements

Urban inflation stood at 15.64 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, compared with 28.48 per cent in September 2025.

However, the month-on-month urban inflation rate increased to 0.53 per cent in September from 0.28 per cent in August, indicating that consumer prices in urban areas rose at a faster pace during the month.

In rural areas, inflation stood at 12.46 per cent year-on-year, down from 25.67 per cent in September 2025.

Rural inflation recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.89 per cent in September, compared with an increase of 1.79 per cent in August.

The contrasting figures suggest that price movements continued to vary between urban and rural communities, reflecting differences in consumption patterns, market conditions and the costs of goods and services.

Naira Appreciation Provides Additional Economic Context

The inflation figures followed a strengthening of the naira at the foreign exchange market.

Nairametrics reported that the naira appreciated to ₦1,333 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market on October 14, 2026, ahead of the release of the September inflation data.

Although exchange-rate stability can influence the cost of imported goods and production inputs, the timing of the naira’s appreciation does not independently establish a direct link with the latest inflation decline.

The development also comes after the Central Bank of Nigeria reduced its benchmark interest rate to 23 per cent, a move expected to support economic activity as inflationary pressures ease.

However, lower monetary policy rates do not automatically translate into immediate reductions in lending rates for businesses and consumers.

Outlook For Households And Businesses

The latest inflation figures indicate continued progress in moderating Nigeria’s price pressures, particularly in the food sector.

Nevertheless, the increase in monthly core and urban inflation suggests that households and businesses may continue to face rising costs in some areas.

For businesses, sustained disinflation could improve planning and provide greater certainty around operating expenses, while more stable exchange rates may help reduce imported-input costs.

The extent of any relief for consumers will depend on whether the decline in inflation translates into more affordable prices for essential goods and services.

Overall, September’s figures point to an easing of inflationary pressures, although maintaining the trend will depend on developments in food supply, exchange-rate stability, production costs and monetary policy.