Munich — NATO would carry out deep strikes inside Russia if Moscow attempted to invade the Baltic states, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has warned, firmly rejecting suggestions that the region could be rapidly overrun.
Speaking to The Telegraph on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Tsahkna said Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are fully prepared to repel any Russian aggression and would respond with significant counter-attacks on Russian territory.
“We will bring the war to Russia,” Tsahkna said. “We are prepared to conduct deep strikes far into Russian territory. We know exactly what to do.”
Tsahkna stressed that the Baltic states have dramatically accelerated defence spending and military readiness amid growing concerns that President Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve following Russia’s war in Ukraine. Estonia and its regional allies are now investing up to five percent of GDP in defence, he noted, underscoring what he described as a fundamental shift in regional security posture.
Security analysts have speculated that Russia could attempt a limited territorial incursion into the Baltics. A recent wargame organised by German newspaper Die Welt, involving former NATO and German military officials, envisioned Russian forces seizing parts of Lithuania within days. Estonia’s eastern border town of Narva has also been identified by some experts as a potential flashpoint.
Tsahkna dismissed suggestions that the Baltic states would wait for broader NATO intervention after suffering occupation.
“Previous contingency plans assumed that NATO would ultimately prevail, but only after significant devastation in Estonia,” he said. “We are not interested in that kind of strategy. We cannot allow Russia to enter the Baltic states and only then begin the fight.”
The Lithuania-focused simulation sparked controversy by depicting Russia achieving its objectives while NATO struggled to mount a decisive response.
In the scenario, the United States declined to invoke Article 5 — the alliance’s collective defence clause — over concerns about escalation. Germany, despite maintaining a brigade in Lithuania, was portrayed as unable to halt advancing Russian forces.
The exercise further suggested Moscow could attempt to justify aggression by fabricating a humanitarian crisis, mirroring narratives previously used in relation to Ukraine. In the simulation, Russian troops captured the city of Marijampolė and moved to secure the strategically critical Suwalki Gap.
Tsahkna’s remarks underscore mounting anxiety across the Baltic region that the war in Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped Europe’s security landscape — and that deterrence must now be backed by credible, immediate military readiness.
