Nigeria’s 2027 general election is shaping up to be a tough battle for opposition parties as the All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Bola Tinubu, continues to expand its influence across the country. The ruling party has gained control of many populous states, while opposition groups battle internal divisions, leadership disputes, and increasing defections that weaken their chances ahead of the polls.

Although the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was adopted as a coalition platform to challenge Tinubu, unity remains a major problem. Supporters of leading aspirants are divided over who should emerge as the party’s presidential candidate, while crises within other opposition parties such as the PDP and Labour Party have pushed several key figures into the APC. As a result, the ruling party has grown from controlling 21 states in 2023 to about 29 states, leaving the opposition with only a few strongholds.

One of the biggest political shifts happened in Kano State, Nigeria’s most vote-rich states with nearly six million registered voters. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s defection to the APC has altered the political balance in the state. While some analysts believe this move could boost Tinubu’s chances in 2027, others argue that Rabiu Kwankwaso’s loyal supporters may still resist APC dominance, especially if Kwankwaso aligns with the opposition coalition.

Meanwhile, cracks within the ADC continue to raise concerns. Disagreements among major figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi over zoning and ticket allocation have fueled tension among supporters. Despite these challenges, party leaders insist the crisis can be resolved and maintain that a united opposition still stands a chance if internal disputes are settled early and transparently.