There have been recent reports that former President Goodluck Jonathan might run for president in 2027. Many believe he could be the right candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is also seen as a potential strong contender by some political observers.

However, Anthony Sani, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, told INFOLAND that neither Atiku nor Jonathan is likely to defeat Tinubu if they enter the race in 2027.

Sani explained that the ADC coalition may struggle because many prominent politicians joining it are from the PDP. This has weakened the opposition, making it harder for them to challenge the incumbent president successfully.

He noted that a similar situation happened in 2023 when APC won because Peter Obi and five G5 governors left the PDP, splitting the opposition. This pattern of division may repeat itself for 2027.

Even if Atiku runs, Sani believes he will find it difficult to gain the same support he had in 2023. Many southerners prefer a president from the South for a full eight years, while most northerners support Tinubu, a southerner who has only served one term.

Regarding where the North may vote, Sani said that zoning politics do not favor Atiku. Both the North and South seem to want a northern president in 2031, making it hard for Atiku to win northern votes.

Reports have suggested that Jonathan may run under the PDP, but Sani doubts this would be a wise move. With the opposition already fragmented between Atiku in ADC and Peter Obi in the Labour Party, Jonathan would face an uphill battle against Tinubu.

Sani also pointed out that Jonathan’s past performance does not indicate he could fix insecurity, fight corruption, or turn the economy around enough to win against the incumbent president.