In a recent survey by the Africa Polling Institute (API), Dr. Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is emerging as the frontrunner in the race for the Edo State governorship election. The poll, conducted from August 12 to 16, 2024, indicates that Ighodalo has the support of 60% of voters who have already made up their minds. This puts him ahead of Sen. Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who has 28% support, and Barr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP), with 12%.

The survey also reveals that 72% of respondents are set on their choice of candidate, while 28% remain undecided. Most voters (94%) have registered with permanent voters’ cards (PVCs), and 83% have given considerable thought to their voting decisions. However, there is mixed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): 47% of respondents lack confidence, 34% have some confidence, and 19% are fully confident. Despite this, 80% of voters feel safe about going out to vote on election day.

When it comes to what influences voter decisions, the most important factors are the candidate’s competence (57%), personality (42%), and experience and track record (36%). Political party affiliation (34%) and party manifesto (16%) play a smaller role.

The API’s report suggests that while Dr. Ighodalo is currently leading, the election is likely to be a tight race between the PDP and APC. Much will depend on which candidate can attract the 28% of undecided voters.

The poll was conducted through telephone interviews with 2,687 voters across all 18 Local Government Areas in Edo State, ensuring a broad and representative sample. The results have a 95% confidence level, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.

The Africa Polling Institute is an independent organization dedicated to conducting polls and social research to inform public policy and advocacy across sub-Saharan Africa.