Liberal pollster Nate Silver has released a surprising prediction for the upcoming U.S. presidential election, forecasting a 63% chance of Donald Trump winning the Electoral College. According to Silver’s model on his blog Silver Bulletin, Trump is expected to secure 312 electoral votes, leaving Kamala Harris with 226.

This marks a huge gain for Trump, compared to his 227 electoral votes in the 2020 race against Joe Biden and even his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, where he took 304 electoral votes. Silver’s latest predictions place Trump ahead in all major swing states, giving him a significant edge in the Electoral College.

However, when it comes to the popular vote, Harris still holds the upper hand. Silver predicts Harris has a 56% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 44%. The race is incredibly tight, with Harris expected to get 49.8% of the popular vote versus 49.1% for Trump.

Interestingly, Silver’s forecast has shifted in recent weeks. Up until late August, he had been predicting a Harris win. However, since her CNN interview alongside running mate Tim Walz, Trump has been gaining ground in the polls. The recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump leading Harris by 1% (48% to 47%), though the result falls within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.

Silver points out that the upcoming debate between Trump and Harris, set to take place in Philadelphia, could have a major impact. “A strong debate performance by Harris could shift the polls significantly,” Silver said. He also noted that many voters remain unsure of where Harris stands on key issues, suggesting there’s still room for change in the numbers.

With the election fast approaching, this prediction has sparked a new wave of interest in how things will play out. Will Trump hold onto his Electoral College lead, or can Harris turn things around with a strong performance? Only time will tell, but according to Silver, Trump is currently in the lead for the White House.