Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have increased sevenfold since 2023, driven largely by rising production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to the latest report by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, up sharply from an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.
The agency attributed the significant increase primarily to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery in January 2024, which has expanded Nigeria’s refined petroleum product output and strengthened the country’s position in international markets.
According to data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa cited by the EIA, about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter were exports, compared with an average of just 46,000 bpd in 2023.
The EIA said the refinery’s increased output has reshaped Nigeria’s petroleum products market by boosting domestic supply, reducing imports and creating additional volumes for export.
“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the agency stated.
Before the Dangote Refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products for domestic and international markets.
The EIA said petroleum product shipments received another boost after the Dangote Refinery completed maintenance and expansion work in February 2026. The expansion increased its crude distillation capacity from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd.
The agency also linked the rise in shipments to increased demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products following supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestic Supply Also Rises, But July Records Decline
Despite the surge in overall production and exports, data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that Dangote Refinery’s supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, to the domestic market declined in July.
The refinery’s daily PMS supply to the Nigerian market fell by 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres in July, the lowest monthly figure recorded in 2026.
NMDPRA data showed that the refinery produced about 25.9 million litres of PMS per day and exported approximately 3.4 million litres per day during the month.
Meanwhile, petrol imports increased by nine per cent to 19.7 million litres per day in July, from 18.1 million litres per day in June.
The figures indicate that while the Dangote Refinery remains a major supplier to the Nigerian market, it is also exporting a significant share of its refined products.
Intra-Nigeria Shipments Increase
The EIA reported that intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments rose substantially to 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.
The increase reflects the growing role of the Dangote Refinery in distributing refined products to different parts of Nigeria.
Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products has also declined significantly. The country imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, but seaborne imports fell to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.
Exports to Europe Expand
Demand for Nigerian refined petroleum products has also increased in international markets.
Vortexa data showed that exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and just 15,000 bpd in 2023.
The development further underscores Nigeria’s growing role as a supplier of refined petroleum products to international markets.
Dangote Refinery has also announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028.
If completed, the additional capacity would bring the refinery’s total capacity to approximately 1.4 million bpd. Chief Executive Officer David Bird said long-lead equipment had already been procured, while construction contracts were being awarded.
Oil Prices Ease on US-Iran Talks
Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined as hopes of a negotiated settlement between the United States and Iran eased concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Brent crude, which had traded around $89 per barrel, fell further to about $88.40 per barrel as of press time as investors weighed the prospect of diplomatic negotiations against tightening sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Tehran, including threats of sanctions against commercial partners that continue trading with Iran.
Iranian crude exports have reportedly fallen well below their 2025 average of about 1.7 million bpd, with August exports averaging roughly 300,000 bpd so far.
However, diplomatic efforts, including mediation by Pakistan, have raised hopes of a breakthrough between Washington and Tehran, putting downward pressure on oil prices despite concerns over tighter global supplies.
