Nigeria’s non-oil exports overtook oil exports in the third quarter of 2026 for the first time, according to the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), signalling a potentially significant shift in the country’s external sector.
The development coincides with Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves rising above $55 billion, providing the country with a stronger buffer to meet foreign-currency demand and manage volatility in the naira.
The Finance Ministry and CBN, however, did not disclose the underlying export values, product breakdown or comparison period in their statement.
Oil has historically remained Nigeria’s dominant source of export earnings and foreign exchange, while the non-oil sector has faced challenges including inadequate logistics, limited industrial capacity and foreign-exchange constraints.
The latest figures, if sustained, could mark a notable change in the composition of Nigeria’s trade and reduce the country’s dependence on crude oil for external earnings.
The announcement follows Nigeria’s reported balance-of-payments surplus of more than $5 billion in 2025.
Refining Boosts External Position
The decline in refined petroleum-product imports is also contributing to the improvement in Nigeria’s external position.
For years, Nigeria exported crude oil while importing a substantial portion of its refined petroleum needs, creating pressure on the trade balance and exposing the naira to international fuel prices and foreign-exchange demand.
According to the Finance Ministry and CBN, expanding domestic refining capacity is now helping to reduce the country’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products.
Reserves Strengthen FX Position
Foreign-exchange reserves above $55 billion give the CBN a larger cushion to respond to external shocks, meet legitimate foreign-currency demand and support stability in the foreign-exchange market.
The authorities also linked the improvement to stronger FX liquidity, greater market accessibility and improved conditions for investors seeking to repatriate capital.
The development comes as FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Nigeria from Unclassified to Frontier Market status takes effect on September 21, 2026. JPMorgan has also announced Nigeria’s inclusion in its new frontier local-currency government-bond index.
Finance Ministry, CBN Deepen Coordination
The latest external-sector developments follow a September 18 memorandum of understanding between the Finance Ministry and the CBN aimed at strengthening fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
The agreement provides for closer alignment of assumptions around inflation, economic growth, government revenue, liquidity, financing requirements and external-sector conditions, while maintaining the CBN’s operational independence.
It also provides for greater information sharing, improved government cash-management coordination and a joint approach to addressing inflationary pressures, including measures targeting food, energy and logistics costs.
The framework further envisages more frequent economic data on areas such as producer prices, employment and productivity to support the CBN’s transition towards inflation targeting.
Potential Turning Point
Nigeria’s reported shift, with non-oil exports surpassing oil exports in the third quarter, could represent an important development in the country’s efforts to diversify its sources of foreign exchange.
Combined with reserves above $55 billion, the 2025 balance-of-payments surplus and declining refined-fuel imports, the figures point to changes in Nigeria’s external position that could lessen its historical dependence on crude oil revenues.
However, the absence of detailed export values and product-level data means the scale and durability of the reported shift will require further data from the authorities.
