Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed to 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, reinforcing the country’s standing as Africa’s largest oil producer, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday.
The report, closely watched by investors and policymakers, shows a modest month-on-month increase in output, although production remains below Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd quota under OPEC’s production framework.
Output Edges Higher but Falls Short of Quota
Data obtained through direct communication between OPEC and Nigerian authorities indicate that production rose from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026 — a 37,000 bpd increase.
Despite the improvement, January output was approximately 50,000 bpd below the country’s assigned ceiling. Secondary sources referenced in the report placed Nigeria’s production slightly higher at 1.47 million bpd, highlighting typical methodological variations in OPEC’s reporting process.
Libya ranked as Africa’s second-largest producer during the period, with output of 1.37 million bpd.
Six Consecutive Months Below Target
Nigeria has now recorded six straight months of production below its OPEC quota, with the last time it met the 1.5 million bpd benchmark occurring in July 2025.
Persistent challenges — including oil theft, pipeline vandalism, operational disruptions, and years of underinvestment in upstream infrastructure — continue to constrain output across key producing regions. Routine maintenance activities have also weighed on performance.
While the upward trend signals gradual recovery, industry analysts stress that structural reforms and strengthened security measures remain essential to sustaining gains and closing the quota gap.
Broader OPEC Production Trends
Beyond Nigeria, OPEC reported that total crude oil production by Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) countries averaged 42.45 million bpd in January 2026, based on secondary sources.
This represents a 439,000 bpd month-on-month decline, reflecting coordinated production management efforts aimed at stabilising global oil markets amid shifting demand dynamics and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Strategic Importance for Nigeria’s Economy
Oil production remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, accounting for the majority of foreign exchange earnings and a substantial share of government revenue.
Higher output levels are expected to bolster fiscal performance, ease pressure on external reserves, and support effective budget execution. For 2026, the Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million bpd production benchmark, while maintaining a more conservative 1.8 million bpd assumption for budget planning.
The Business Bureau will continue to track oil output trends and assess their implications for fiscal stability and foreign exchange performance as part of its ongoing coverage of Nigeria’s energy sector.
