The United Kingdom has said that a Russian victory in the ongoing war in Ukraine is far from certain, despite Moscow’s continued military campaign. The statement was made on Thursday at a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), where the UK highlighted the heavy cost of the war on Russia’s military and economy. British officials stressed that the conflict has brought severe human and financial losses to Russia since the invasion began in February 2022.

Speaking at the meeting, Ankur Narayan, Counsellor for Politico-Military Affairs at the UK Delegation, said Russia’s armed forces have suffered massive casualties with very limited territorial gains. According to UK estimates, about 420,000 Russian troops were killed or injured in 2025 alone to capture just 0.8 percent of Ukrainian territory, bringing total casualties to around 1.2 million since the war started. He said Russian soldiers and civilians are paying the price for decisions taken by President Vladimir Putin.

Narayan also drew attention to Russia’s growing economic strain, noting that the Kremlin plans to spend about 38 percent of its 2026 budget on defence and security. To fund this, the Russian government has raised value-added tax and cut spending on social services and economic support to their lowest levels in two decades. He added that oil and gas revenues fell by 24 percent in 2025, while military salaries rose sharply, worsening a fiscal deficit that exceeded $72 billion.

The UK further noted that Russia is facing serious recruitment challenges, forcing it to relax medical standards and rely more on foreign fighters, including thousands from abroad. According to Narayan, Russia’s limited reserves have also weakened its defensive positions, allowing Ukraine to launch successful counterattacks in late 2025. He reaffirmed that Europe would continue to back Ukraine, pointing to €40 billion in military aid provided last year, and stressed that Russia’s actions violate international law and OSCE principles.