Akin Osuntokun, a former Director-General of the Labour Party’s presidential campaign, has expressed doubts about the opposition’s ability to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Speaking in an interview on Tuesday, Osuntokun acknowledged that political alliances are common in Nigeria but questioned whether the new coalition could succeed. He pointed out that Tinubu is a highly skilled politician with the advantage of being in power.
Osuntokun believes that Tinubu’s position as President gives him a significant advantage. He recalled how Tinubu won the 2023 election despite many challenges and argued that his control of government resources would make him even stronger in 2027.
“Tinubu has the power of incumbency and will use it to his advantage if he decides to seek re-election. If he could win in 2023 without being in power, imagine his chances now,” Osuntokun said.
The new opposition alliance, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other political figures, was recently announced in Abuja. Key members include Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai.
Osuntokun noted that forming a coalition is a good strategy but warned that internal disagreements could weaken it. He stressed that the opposition must agree on how to select their presidential candidate to avoid failure.
“For any political party to effectively challenge the ruling power, they need to unite under one platform. However, if they fail to agree on how to pick a candidate, the coalition may collapse,” he explained.
Osuntokun suggested that the opposition should pick a candidate from the South. He argued that choosing Atiku, a northern politician, might not work due to Nigeria’s tradition of rotating power between the North and the South.
“If the ticket goes to a northern politician like Atiku, it will violate the political arrangement that has been in place since 1999, making it difficult to win nationwide support,” he stated.
Despite his skepticism, Osuntokun admitted that a strong opposition alliance has worked before. He cited how the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015. However, he believes that Tinubu’s experience and political influence make him a tough opponent.
“The opposition leaders are up against a strong politician in Tinubu, who will do everything possible to win,” Osuntokun concluded.
The 2027 election is still a few years away, but the success of the opposition coalition will depend on their ability to stay united and choose a candidate wisely.
